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Prognostications for the New Year are governed here by Peter Drucker’s law: “Nobody can predict the future. The idea is to keep a firm grasp of the present.” Deal. Attitude first, then the particulars. Last year opened with panic, and all year long we looked over our shoulders for its return. Instead, we should go […]
Markets quiet, it is time to look back. One year ago, the terrible market panic post-Lehman had begun to abate, and all mice in the mortgage house eagerly awaited the Fed’s purchases of mortgages. The economy itself was still in a freefall that would not to slow until spring, and tentative recovery in early summer […]
Long-term rates are falling, a brief bout of economic optimism now replaced by renewed “Who knows?” Mortgages are 5-ish (might find a 4-prefix in your stocking) and the 10-year T-note is trying to head back under 3.50%. The optimism crested with a surge in Producer Prices (core up .5% in November), and industrial production better […]
Long-term Treasury yields pierced the post-August high, 3.50%, trading today at 3.57%, but did little damage to mortgage rates still holding close to 5.00%. The proximate causes of the rise: another huge week of Treasury borrowing finally ran into resistance (another $1.4 trillion coming in 2010, so why hurry to buy the paper?), and some […]
Mortgage and long Treasury rates are rising toward four-month highs this morning (5.25% and 3.49%) on a happy surprise in the job market. The monthly survey of big business “non-farm payrolls” found an end to job losses, and got some confirmation from an abrupt drop in the last two weeks’ claims for unemployment insurance. Other […]
Chairman Bernanke’s extraordinary speech on Monday instantly knocked 10-year Treasurys below 3.35%, where they have stayed. Lowest-fee mortgages are 5.00%. Economic data increased the tilt in markets toward concern for the recovery. Retail sales flattened to a .2% gain in October (ex-autos), breaking an apparent up-trend. New claims for unemployment insurance were unchanged at 505,000 […]
Treasury and mortgage rates have again reached their post-August highs, but still in tight ranges: the 10-year T-note 3.48%, low-fee mortgages just under 5.25%. The producer price index fell hard in September, down .6%, the much-hoped-for re-building of inventories not yet underway. Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose, back in the 525,000-550,000 weekly band. […]
Long-term rates are again approaching four-month lows, 10-year T-notes just above the magic 3.28% level; break that and low-fee mortgages will cross just under 5.00%. If that blessed moment should arrive, do not wait for lower, or expect sub-5.00% to last more than a few hours: surviving mortgage lenders will yell, “Now!” to a few […]
In this last, drowsy week of summer, long-term rates were unchanged: the 10-year T-note held under 3.50%, lowest-fee mortgages about 5.25%. Summer has another three weeks to run to solstice, but it’s all-hands-on-deck next week before a late Labor Day to deal with the first August data, especially Friday’s employment report. The change in payrolls […]
Interest rates are a hair lower at week’s end, more in relief that another massive Treasury borrowing — $109 billion in term debt alone — came off without injuries. However, long-term Treasury rates have been elevated since May, pushing mortgages to 5.50%, past the edge of refinance demand, and near the limit of buyer demand. […]